Even before officially taking office, Donald Trump’s desire to incorporate Greenland and Canada into the United States shocked the international community. This was not the first time Trump expressed such a desire. In 2019, he had already proposed buying Greenland from Denmark. Initially dismissed as a joke, this proposal faded from public memory amid the COVID-19 pandemic and Trump’s loss in the presidential election—until his dramatic return to power. Trump’s resurgence has brought the topic back into the spotlight, now with more insistence. But what is Trump’s real interest in Canada and Greenland? To understand this, we must first look at the Arctic region.
A Pristine Region
Known as the Arctic, this region encompasses the northernmost part of the world, surrounding the North Pole. With its frigid climate, unique ecosystem, and famous icebergs, the Arctic is an unparalleled area. Despite its global importance, there is no universally accepted definition of the Arctic. The region can be identified from different perspectives—political, scientific, or geographical—resulting in varying definitions.
The Arctic’s coastal states include Russia, Canada, the United States, Denmark, and Norway. According to some definitions, Sweden, Iceland, and Finland are also part of the Arctic. If we define the Arctic as the area within the Arctic Circle, it covers 40 million square kilometers, including the Arctic Ocean, the world’s smallest and shallowest ocean, which spans 14 million square kilometers. Approximately 40% of the land and half of the coastline in the Arctic fall under Russian control.
The Arctic holds an estimated 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its natural gas reserves. The region is also rich in other valuable resources, including copper, cobalt, nickel, and zinc.
Several sea routes are seasonally used in the Arctic. The first is the Northwest Passage, which runs through Canada’s Arctic archipelago and connects the east and west coasts of the Americas. The second is the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s Arctic coastline, linking Asia and Europe. The third is the Northeast Passage, an alternative to the second route, passing through Russia and Norway’s Arctic coasts. The fourth route, the Arctic Bridge, connects Canada’s Churchill Port to Russia’s Murmansk Port. A fifth route, the Transpolar Sea Route, is planned to connect the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Due to climate change, the Arctic is undergoing rapid transformation, transitioning from an impassable region into one that is increasingly navigable. Melting ice is exposing previously inaccessible areas. Projections suggest that Arctic waters could remain ice-free during summers in the coming years, with winter sea ice becoming increasingly fragile. Consequently, these routes are now open for longer periods. In the future, these routes could remain open year-round due to global warming.
The shorter routes and untapped resources have increased the appetite of both regional and non-regional actors for the Arctic. This has led to several territorial disputes. For example, Canada and the U.S. dispute the boundaries of the Beaufort Sea, while Norway and Russia contest claims in the Barents Sea.
A Boiling Ice Sea
The Arctic region first came into contact with the outside world during Viking expeditions in the 15th century. However, serious interest in the region began in the 19th century as various countries sought alternative resources and routes. By the 20th century, the Arctic remained largely untouched, but territorial disputes had already begun.
Russia and China’s Arctic Policies
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia made its first major Arctic move in 2001 by claiming sovereignty over 1.2 million square kilometers of the Arctic Ocean. This claim included areas rich in petroleum, natural gas, and other hydrocarbon resources, such as the Lomonosov Ridge and the Alpha-Mendelev Mountain Range, contested by Denmark, Canada, and the U.S. Although Russia’s claim was rejected and condemned by the international community, it did not stop Moscow from pursuing its interests. In 2007, Russia planted its flag on the seabed of the North Pole.
The Role of the U.S. and NATO in the Arctic
The U.S. first entered the Arctic in 1867 by purchasing Alaska from Russia. However, compared to the Soviet Union, the U.S. was slow to develop an Arctic strategy, focusing primarily on environmental protection and the establishment of exclusive economic zones. It was only after the Cold War and the visible effects of climate change that the U.S. recognized the Arctic’s full potential. In 2009, the U.S. published its Arctic region policy, declaring itself an Arctic nation and emphasizing the need for stronger presence and cooperation.
The Positions of Greenland and Canada
The Arctic region is home to various territorial disputes, most of which involve Canada and Greenland. Understanding their strategic importance can shed light on Trump’s motivations.
Greenland is officially an autonomous territory of Denmark, yet it is significantly larger in landmass compared to Denmark itself. Despite its vast size, it has a population of only about 55,000. Economically, it is heavily dependent on Denmark, receiving approximately $600 million in annual support.
Conclusion
While it is unlikely that Greenland or Canada will directly become U.S. territories, it is clear that Trump aims to create a united front in the Arctic against Russia and China. Greenland’s potential independence and closer ties to the U.S. could significantly shift the geopolitical balance in the region.
