“COP” (Conference of the Parties) is the main decision-making mechanism of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). At these conferences, the 197 signatories of the UNFCCC come together to review progress and decide on actions to address the climate crisis. Over the past twenty years, COP meetings have grown from small sessions to large annual conferences. However, despite these conferences being held regularly for 20 years, whether global climate negotiations are an effective solution is frequently debated; yet it’s an obvious fact that COP meetings can lay a solid foundation for shaping global responses and measures to the approaching great catastrophe, climate disorder, and ecological collapse.
However, the fact that this year’s COP, COP28, is being held under the leadership of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which already frequently causes debates about its effectiveness and capability, increases discussions and concerns about whether this meeting can create transformation. There is curiosity about how ambitious the UAE leadership’s goals are for this year’s conference, and whether COP28 is a critical turning point for climate action is being questioned.
To answer this question, the UAE Presidency’s promises should be evaluated within the general framework of previous climate summits. This evaluation was conducted by the faculty under the leadership of Prof. İbrahim Özdemir, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Üsküdar University, and the Caribbean ASEAN Council with contributions from participants from Dominica, Nigeria, Chad, Gambia, and Bangladesh, examining all Conferences since COP24 in detail and publishing their analyses in a report titled “COP28, Progress or Regression.”
Since this report was prepared by leading experts in Turkey and developing countries in the “Global South,” it has a perspective that can shed light on developing countries’ dependency on fossil fuels and the challenges of transitioning from these resources to sustainable energy sources. For this reason, it is written based on science and considering the requirements needed for developing countries to complete their economic development, rather than the utopian perspective of already prosperous communities like other “Eurocentric” reports written by Europeans. As we know, for many developing countries, transitioning from fossil fuels to modern energy remains a difficult goal to achieve. Understanding these difficulties and complexities is vital when seeking sustainable solutions to global problems affecting us, and this report emphasized this in its research about COP28.
The COP28, Progress or Regression report examines the UAE’s efforts to balance reducing dependency on fossil fuels while transitioning to a green economy. The analysis presented aims to assess whether the UAE’s process of moving away from oil and gas serves as an example of how this transition can be achieved in a way that is fair and economically sensitive. It seeks to evaluate this based on concrete data, aiming for a less polarized and more constructive dialogue.
Year-by-Year Summaries of COP Conferences
The COP28, Progress or Regression report examines the decisions of COP conferences since COP24 under three main headings. These three main headings are Emission Reduction, Renewable Energy Goals, and Climate Financing. To grasp the necessary context before discussing COP28 in this article about the COP28, Progress or Regression report, we need to look at the promises made, the decisions taken, and how much these were implemented after the end of these conferences. For this purpose, unlike the COP28 Progression or Regression report, we will examine the COP-24, 25, 26, and 27 conferences as a whole rather than under three main headings, while we will address COP28 in more detail.
COP24
The COP24 Conference hosted by Poland had one of its goals as adopting rules and tools to create systemic solutions covering the whole world. The conference focused on an almost completed rulebook called the ‘Katowice Climate Package,’ which established common standards for countries to report their greenhouse gas emissions transparently and provided a framework assessing collective progress on climate action called ‘Global Stocktake.’ However, although it seemed to create a very solid framework for implementing the Paris Agreement, it failed to put the necessary emphasis on member states to review or increase their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). While current targets weren’t even close to controlling global warming, the summit didn’t allocate enough time to raise these targets or make transformative changes.
On the contrary, although the Polish President called for more climate targets at the pre-COP24 meeting in Krakow, efforts to determine technical and procedural details needed to track and report emissions hindered countries’ efforts to increase emission targets.
An important declaration made under the summit’s theme of “Human, Technology, Nature” was the Polish-British initiative ‘Driving Change Together – Katowice Partnership for Electromobility,’ which aimed to develop clean transportation networks. However, the fact that Poland, hosting one of the world’s most important climate meetings, was the world’s tenth largest fossil fuel consumer and derived 80% of its energy from coal led critics to point out that the host country set a poor example. Consequently, the summit ended without clarified collective targets to increase climate action.
COP25
COP25, hosted by Chile, had set increasing targets before 2020 as its main agenda item, with scientific reports calling for urgent climate action. However, the conference, which the Chilean President opened with the promise that it would be an “Implementation COP” and began with Chile’s goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, resulted in little progress on shown targets despite being the longest meeting in COP history, and ironically, clean energy transition wasn’t even one of the main goals of the conference. COP25, which aimed to address unresolved elements of the Katowice Climate Package such as voluntary carbon emission markets, couldn’t even meet modest goals as negotiators couldn’t find common ground at the summit. Large players like Brazil and Australia, taking advantage of weak Chilean leadership, blocked the prevention of double counting emission reductions.
Climate finance was one of the focal points of the conference in line with the goal of making the Paris Agreement fully operational. The need to increase contributions to the GCF (Green Climate Fund) was discussed – the commitment of developed countries to mobilize $100 billion annually for climate finance by 2020 was reiterated, but no progress was made in addressing damages that had already occurred. In particular, there was a deadlock on the issue of “loss and damage,” which is the principle of claiming economic losses due to climate-related damages, while the issue of providing long-term funding to help poorer countries also couldn’t be resolved. Therefore, themes related to important planned issues such as climate finance were postponed to the next year, meaning the guideline necessary for the Paris Agreement to come into force in 2020 remained incomplete and couldn’t be prepared.
Only 80 governments with 10 percent of carbon emissions out of 195 countries that ratified the Paris Agreement committed to coming with strengthened climate plans and strengthened NDCs for COP26. In particular, the EU (except Poland) and the UK, which would host the next COP, announced net zero emission targets by 2050. The issue of countries increasing their climate targets was set aside, and the world’s largest carbon-emitting countries departed without making a strong declaration of intent for the next year.
The COP25 President closed the conference with “deep disappointment” due to the failure of the talks. While some described the actions as “extremely slow and insufficient,” others characterized the conference as “a great failure.” This conference, which started with the tag “time for action,” saw no significant action.
COP26
COP26, held in Glasgow, United Kingdom, began with the goal of accelerating global net zero emissions by 2050 and limiting the temperature increase to 1.5C, which is considered the critical threshold. Participants finally managed to agree on completing the Paris Rulebook, with a meeting where decisions awaited for five years were made, including transparency rules, carbon markets and non-market approaches, and common timeframes for future NDCs. One of the important outputs of the conference was the ‘Glasgow Climate Pact,’ which called for submitting strengthened national action plans in the original 2025 timeline rather than next year. Compared to COP25, 25 new countries agreed to update their NDCs, and these updates reduced 2030 emission projections by approximately 1.4 gigatons in total. However, unfortunately, although these are positive developments, even if these newly accepted NDCs are implemented with 100% efficiency, they can only keep global warming below 2C. It’s definitely not enough for 1.5C, and precisely for this reason, although it was a historic development that participating countries could finally agree on such comprehensive issues, the COP President characterized this as a “fragile victory,” while the UN Secretary-General made justified and valid criticisms that political will was still insufficient and cuts in greenhouse gas emissions were far from where needed to protect a livable climate.
Unlike COP24 and COP25, the UK Presidency’s goals at COP26 included phasing out coal and encouraging investment in renewable energy. Taking a major step on coal, at COP26, they agreed on a provision for “phasing down unabated coal power,” which had not been explicitly stated in UN climate talks decisions before. At COP26, all major coal financing countries committed to ending international public fossil financing by 2022. In addition to these positive developments, 145 countries pledged to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030. Also, as a positive development regarding electric vehicles, more than 30 countries and six major vehicle manufacturers expressed their determination for all new car and van sales to be zero-emission vehicles globally by 2040.
Besides the UK Presidency’s goals at COP26 to accelerate the global net zero target and stay below 1.5C temperature rise, the other two major goals were to collect $100 billion annual climate finance to support developing countries and encourage communities worldwide to adapt to increase their resilience against climate change. Developed countries had failed to deliver on their promise of the annual $100 billion target for developing countries in Glasgow.
However, COP26 managed to commit the most funding so far by taking advantage of this regret. It boasted record pledge commitments of over $350 million for the UNFCCC Adaptation Fund and over $400 million for the Least Developed Countries Fund. Although both amounts were obviously higher than previous collective actions, funding levels remained pitifully inadequate. Billions of dollars are still needed to reach the amount required to address the damages of climate impacts and on-site needs. Considering these, we can see why the criticisms of the COP president and UN Secretary-General were justified despite the decisions being in the right direction. As the Americans say, too little too late.
COP27
COP27 was launched by the Egyptian Presidency as an “Implementation COP,” emphasizing the need to transition from negotiations to inclusive and global-scale actions, as in the previous COP25 conference. The conference aimed to encourage particularly leadership position countries to take “bold and urgent actions” to reduce emissions and keep global warming well below 2C. However, the conference failed to deliver on its promises, just like COP25, as countries did not make emission reduction commitments and showed weak will in controlling global warming.
While the conference ended with a call to reform the green international financial system to make it easier for low and middle-income countries to access finance, it largely failed to deliver on its green finance goals. The promise of developed economies to double climate finance at COP26 was almost completely ignored. The conference’s final cover text could only emphasize that all commitments need to be fulfilled urgently.
Compared to the strong green momentum at COP26, Egypt Presidency’s efforts at COP27 were overshadowed by Russia’s war against Ukraine and many countries’ decisions to expand their domestic fossil fuel reserves. Unfortunately, with the participation of more than 600 fossil fuel-linked delegates at COP27, there was a 25% increase compared to the previous year. Of the world’s three major polluters, only one leader attended the conference. While the US showed late participation, China and India did not attend the conference directly. Among the important countries that did not attend the conference, world leaders who were already busy with the energy crisis in their own countries mostly did not condescend to take steps on this issue, and those who did approached with hesitation, and the COP27 Conference ended without a clear commitment to phase out fossil fuels.
COP27, which chose Coca-Cola as its main sponsor and faced ‘greenwashing’ accusations because of this, had only two achievements worth mentioning at the end of the conference; the launch of a mitigation work program aimed at increasing reduction targets and implementation phases, and the establishment of an African carbon market that would establish voluntary carbon markets to complement the continent’s carbon reduction efforts.
Emission Reduction
The fact that COP28 conference will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates naturally and rightfully gave rise to many objections and criticisms. Despite this, looking at the pre-conference preparations, topics given importance, and conference contents, targets and decisions taken, we can see that the United Arab Emirates has at least understood the seriousness of the climate crisis on its own basis and given it the necessary importance. The UAE, which has an economy almost entirely based on oil and fossil fuels, seems to have evaluated well the world market and market movements shifting towards green energy, as the UAE made large investments in renewable energy even before the conference. The president of COP28, Dr. Sultan Al-Jaber, is also the founding CEO of Masdar, the state’s renewable energy company established by the UAE in 2006. Masdar has become one of the world’s largest renewable energy companies today.
At the COP28 conference, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Presidency’s plan focusing on accelerating energy transition in a fair, equitable, and orderly manner and cutting emissions before 2030 was “largely welcomed” by experts and civil society organizations. The UAE Presidency aims to progress with high focus on reducing fossil fuel emissions while increasing cost-effective, zero-carbon alternatives. The conference’s action plan includes halving direct emissions from the oil and gas industry and emissions from energy purchases, namely Scope 1 and 2 emissions.
Dr. Al Jaber clearly stated that Scope 3 emissions – emissions from the use and consumption of fossil fuels – need to be addressed along with Scope 1 and 2. Although the UAE’s state-owned oil company Adnoc was criticized earlier this year for not reporting Scope 3 emissions, Al Jaber’s inclusion of Scope 3 in the COP28 agenda promises that fossil fuel producers will be subject to proper reporting of Scope 3 emissions from now on. If successful, it can be used as an efficient framework that future COP conferences can use.
The UAE and Dr. Al Jaber opposed Scope 3 emissions being subject only to fossil fuel producers at the COP28 conference and mentioned that final consumers of fossil fuels should also be held responsible for the carbon footprint of these emissions. Although Western countries that import fossil fuels opposed this issue at the conference, Dr. Al Jaber actually has a point. In the world economy operating with Supply-Demand balance, there’s a reason why fossil fuel production is so profitable. That reason is high demand. A product that final consumers demand highly and consume in high amounts, whatever that product may be, should be subject to not only the producer’s but also the consumer’s responsibility. However, this should not mean that Scope 3 emissions should only be loaded on the consumer. Scope 3 emissions should be jointly undertaken by both producer and consumer. Only in this way can a solution with a strong foundation be produced.
Renewable Energy Goals
This year’s COP28 agenda aims to triple renewable energy capacity worldwide by 2030 and double energy efficiency. According to analysis by technology forecasters at Oxford University, when these targets are achieved, they can reduce global average solar energy costs by 40-50%, which can bring solar energy down to a quarter of costs compared to fossil fuels. This situation can make solar energy economically much more competitive than fossil fuels, thus economic transformation in the next two decades gains speed above expectations. These low costs could trigger rapid solar energy diffusion that could unlock key climate financing particularly in the Global South due to economic competitiveness.
When it comes to fossil fuels, the COP28 Presidency has made a careful word choice – it has not committed to eliminating oil and gas overnight. COP28 encourages a pragmatic transition from oil and gas through reducing the carbon emissions of the fossil fuel industry and encouraging renewable energy initiatives. While it’s understandable for critics to view this approach with skepticism, the report mentions that this approach could be unexpectedly effective. The COP28 Presidency emphasizes “phasing out fossil fuel emissions” and prioritizing an energy system free from unabated fossil fuels by mid-century. It aims to achieve this mentioned transition through good and fair governance including fossil fuel industries, without creating an economic crisis or energy squeeze. How successful this can be remained somewhat of a mystery. The UAE, as an oil economy, naturally wants to make this change by keeping the fossil fuel industry on its side. However, it’s an undeniable fact that although the Fossil Fuel Industry is aware that transition to green energy is inevitable in the long term, it will want the transition to slow down to maximize its profits until that transition takes place.
Therefore, at the conference, initiatives promoting wind and solar energy will be prioritized, but attempts were made to create an aspiration for transforming the use of fossil fuels in a way that will reduce their emissions and environmental damage.
Another important issue that needs to be mentioned is that Dr. Al Jaber was appointed as CEO of the UAE state oil company by UAE Prince Mohammed bin Zayed after his Masdar CEO position. This appointment took place a few months after Mohammed bin Zayed’s decarbonization speech to the UN in 2015. Under Al Jaber’s leadership, Adnoc has made significant progress in decarbonizing its own operations. Being the world’s first major oil company operating with 100% nuclear and solar power, it is investing to triple its carbon capture capacity. Al Jaber has called for an “inclusive approach” in energy transition and emphasized that fossil fuel players need to be included in the conversation. The UAE essentially encourages the formulation of a plan based on consensus among all stakeholders that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the way forward. As stated in the previous paragraph, although this thought and encouragement is part of a logical plan, the desires and sincerity of the oil industry in moving away from fossil fuels in the shortest time possible within the framework of science continue to create question marks in minds.
Climate Financing
Regarding Climate Finance, the UAE Presidency aims to break previous conferences’ patterns of indecision and “disrupt business as usual, unite around decisive action and achieve game-changing results.” It identified transforming climate finance as one of the four cornerstones the conference will focus on. Following the completely inadequate progress at COP27, this year’s conference aims to show a “renewed focus” on fulfilling previous commitments. Examples include doubling adaptation finance by 2025 and fulfilling the “100 billion dollar target.” With at least $120 billion per year needed for clean energy investment for low-income countries, COP28 aims to highlight how gaps in climate finance will be met. The upcoming Presidency saw finalizing the technical details of the loss and damage fund accepted at COP27 as “absolutely mandatory” and aims to make the first cash distribution immediately afterward. The UAE also welcomed early commitments to the GCF and called on developed countries to maintain momentum by replenishing this fund at the conference.
Earlier this year, the COP28 President called for “trillions in private investment, not billions in multilateral loans” calling to make climate finance more accessible, available and appropriate for vulnerable countries. Unlike previous COPs, COP28 put “completely transforming” the existing climate finance landscape in its goals and strongly called on multilateral finance institutions including the World Bank, IMF and others to standardize voluntary carbon markets and encourage private capital and finance.
Particularly, the UAE Presidency will aim to provide more concessional finance to reduce risk in low-income countries and attract private capital, as well as explore new tools that will direct private sector financing more effectively and efficiently to countries in need. Such action items will be critical for turning billions into trillions, distributing climate finance without burying the developing world under more debt, and removing bureaucratic barriers preventing access to funds. Earlier this year, the COP28 President praised the Barbados Prime Minister’s ‘Bridgetown Initiative,’ which envisions postponing debt payments in the face of disasters and facilitating developing nations’ fight against global warming. This initiative has the potential to release approximately $1 trillion in climate finance. In the months leading to COP28, the UAE Presidency took steps to reform international finance for climate action, such as hosting the Independent High-Level Expert Group to discuss enabling private and public finance for realizing Paris Agreement goals. In an extraordinary step that previous COPs haven’t tried, the group will produce a structural change roadmap for climate finance to work. The G20 High-Level Expert Group report will be prepared to outline the contours of a new financial architecture capable of facilitating an inclusive net-zero transition. Compared to previous conferences, COP28 ultimately aims to fulfill promises made repeatedly, resolve unresolved issues, and establish financial structures that can sustain future progress. In the President’s own words, what is demanded is not “piecemeal reform” but “super-charged solutions and ambitious outcomes.”
Summary and Conclusion
In contrast to previous summits, COP28 presents an action-oriented and optimistic agenda with goals to expand renewable energy, reduce fossil fuels, eliminate unabated fossil fuels, and make trillions of dollars in investments accessible for developing countries. It aims to address financing needs by including the private sector. This summit will prioritize unresolved issues like the operationalization of the loss and damage fund and the eventual delivery of the annual $100 billion promised by developed countries. If successful, COP28 will be a significant step for global climate action and establish a solid foundation for more radical progress. At a time when we are beginning to feel the impacts of the climate crisis in our daily lives, laying this foundation, although belated, is of critical importance for implementing effective solutions without further delay.
Despite having faced criticism, particularly due to its connections with Adnoc, the UAE has stood out with its major initiatives toward renewable energy in the past and being the first country in the region to ratify the Paris Agreement, commit to economy-wide emission reduction, and announce a 2050 Net Zero strategy. The UAE’s official adoption of the ‘Post-Oil Strategy’ in 2016 shows that it sees the COP28 Presidency as an opportunity to guide the world toward a post-oil future and, beyond this guidance, wants to prevent the possibility of becoming a country with no function and importance in the post-oil future. Setting aside financial matters, the UAE’s desire for self-preservation proves that it is genuinely willing for the COP28 conference to succeed.
The findings of the COP28, Progress or Regression report show that the UAE has mobilized $300 billion worth of renewable energy projects in this decade and supports a more sustainable future. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber’s plan to triple renewable energy and his acceptance that fossil fuel use needs to decrease in the coming decades are key turning points that no previous COP presidency has articulated and could shape global climate policy.
In conclusion, the “COP28, Progress or Regression” report prepared by Üsküdar University and the Caribbean ASEAN Council indicates that COP28 presents the most ambitious agenda so far, despite legitimate concerns about the adequacy of measures proposed by the COP28 Presidency and the role of oil industries in shaping the agenda. If emission, renewable energy, and climate finance targets are achieved at COP28, it will fundamentally accelerate the policy changes urgently needed for transformation. Therefore, delegates and campaigners should focus on helping and encouraging the emergence of a global agreement on the items on the agenda at COP28. If successful, COP28 could give birth to the most robust global climate agreement negotiated so far, and future COPs can build upon it to maintain a more comprehensive and rapid transformation.
