The Munich Security Conference, considered one of the world’s most prestigious security conferences alongside GLOBSEC, is still taught in many international relations departments due to Putin’s 2007 speech. This year’s Munich Security Conference was marked by US Vice President James David Vance’s speech.
When J.D. Vance took the stage, he responded to the applause by saying “I hope this won’t be the last applause I receive,” signaling what was to come. He compared the “protective wall” drawn by Brussels against rising new right movements to the Berlin Wall, mentioned the canceled Romanian elections, and stated that Europe was moving away from its traditional values of democracy and freedom of expression. He emphasized that European politicians should listen to the voice of the people, saying “If you’re afraid of your own voters, there’s nothing America can do for you,” effectively sending a message to the front formed against the rising AfD. While Vance’s words were occasionally interrupted by applause, it was noticeable that these applauses came from only a few people, and the general audience listened to the speech with concern.
Another noteworthy speech was that of Ukrainian President V. Zelensky. Zelensky emphasized that Russia would mobilize 150,000 more people this year, deploy a large number of troops to Belarus, and that North Korean soldiers quickly adapted to modern war tactics and challenged the Ukrainian Army on the field, calling for support. Zelensky also stated that Russia has not abandoned its main objectives of reaching Transnistria in Moldova to destabilize the Balkans and establishing a land bridge between Kaliningrad and the Russian mainland by moving troops into the Suwalki corridor.
In addition to the leaders’ statements, the Munich Security Conference shapes security policy with its annual report published just before the conference. The report contains a brief summary of 2024 followed by analyses of what awaits world security in 2025. As the Foreign Policy and Security Research Center, we have summarized the Munich Security Conference’s 2025 report titled Multipolarisation and enriched it with our own perspective.
Introduction
The world order is rapidly evolving from the post-Cold War unipolar US hegemony toward a multipolar structure. The most distinctive feature of this transformation process is the increasing sharing of global power among more actors and the simultaneous polarization both in the international system and within countries themselves. According to the Munich Security Index 2024 data, about one-third of global public opinion believes that the US is still the dominant superpower, while another third thinks that the world is dominated jointly by the US and China.
How this new order will take shape remains uncertain. The current international system exhibits characteristics of unipolarity, bipolarity, and multipolarity simultaneously. The continuing military superiority of the US, its increasing strategic competition with China, and the rise of regional powers constitute the fundamental elements of this complex structure.
Changing Balance of Powers
The changing balance of power in the international system constitutes one of the most critical global dynamics of the 21st century. This change manifests itself most prominently in economic and technological domains. China becoming the world’s largest economy according to purchasing power parity and its increasing dominance in critical technologies stand out as concrete indicators of this transformation. Particularly, China’s progress in strategic sectors such as artificial intelligence, 5G technologies, quantum computing, and semiconductor production creates significant competition in the global technology ecosystem.
However, the US superiority in the global system has not completely disappeared. The continued status of the American dollar as an international reserve currency and its dominance in the global financial system continue to provide Washington with a significant economic and geopolitical advantage. Control of the SWIFT system, effectiveness in international banking networks, and Wall Street’s central position in global financial markets constitute the fundamental pillars of US economic power.
Donald Trump’s re-election as president in 2024 has been a harbinger of potentially significant changes in the US global role. The Trump administration’s tendency to move away from the mission of preserving the liberal international order and its competition-focused policies with China are considered factors that could accelerate the transition to multipolarity. In this context, Trump’s protectionist trade policies, critical stance toward NATO, and adoption of the “America First” approach in relations with allies are seen as developments that could test the cohesion of the Western alliance.
The positions of the European Union, India, Russia, and other emerging powers are also critically important in this process of change. Particularly the EU’s quest for strategic autonomy and India’s increasing economic and technological capacity are factors that could play important roles in shaping the multipolar world order. Russia’s control over energy resources and its military capacity are also among the factors affecting the balance of power.
In conclusion, the power shift in the international system is evolving toward a more complex structure based on the interaction of different power centers rather than the absolute superiority of a single actor. In this process, economic and technological competition stand out as the main determinants of geopolitical struggle. How these dynamics will shape in the coming period will be decisive for global stability and prosperity.
Europe and Russia’s Position
The European Union continues to be the most consistent defender of the liberal international order since its establishment. However, the multidimensional challenges it has faced in recent years are testing the resilience of the union. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has profoundly shaken Europe’s security architecture and necessitated a reassessment of defense policies. Energy security concerns that emerged in this process have led the EU to take strategic steps to reduce its energy dependence on Russia and diversify its energy sources.
Rising populism and far-right movements within the union stand out as important internal dynamics threatening the EU’s democratic values and integration process. Social tensions shaped around the migration crisis, economic inequalities, and identity politics are straining solidarity among member states. Trump’s re-election as president in 2024 has further deepened concerns about the future of transatlantic relations. The EU’s quest for strategic autonomy is gaining new momentum in this context, but there are still significant deficiencies in defense capacity and foreign policy coordination.
Russia, on the other hand, continues its effort to change the current international order within the framework of an alternative civilization vision to Western hegemony. The Putin administration is acting with a vision of a multipolar world order and trying to expand its sphere of influence, especially in the former Soviet geography. However, the Ukraine war lasting longer than expected and the heavy economic and military costs it has created are weakening Russia’s global position.
The comprehensive economic sanctions imposed by Western countries have restricted Russia’s access to the international financial system and hindered its technological development. In this process, Russia’s economic and technological dependence on China is gradually increasing. While the Moscow-Beijing axis is strengthening, it is debatable to what extent this asymmetric relationship will support Russia’s goal of being an independent global power in the long term.
Russia’s efforts to redirect its energy exports to Asian markets cannot fully compensate for the losses in the European market. Demographic problems, lack of economic diversity, and backwardness in high-technology sectors make the sustainability of Russia’s goal of being a global power questionable. Nevertheless, Russia’s extensive natural resources, nuclear deterrence capacity, and permanent membership in the UN Security Council continue to make it one of the important actors in the international system.
In light of these dynamics, how Europe-Russia relations will shape in the coming period will play a critical role in the restructuring of global power balances. The EU’s ability to maintain its internal cohesion and strengthen its strategic autonomy, and Russia’s capacity to achieve economic-technological modernization will be the main determinants of this process.
Changing Dynamics in Asia-Pacific
China’s rise and particularly the assertive foreign policy approach that has become prominent during Xi Jinping’s period are fundamentally transforming the security balances in the Asia-Pacific region. Territorial claims in the South China Sea, increasing pressure on Taiwan, and the expanding economic sphere of influence through the “Belt and Road Initiative” are causing regional countries to reshape their security policies.
Japan is experiencing a historic transformation in its defense and security policies in this strategic environment. Moving increasingly away from the pacifist approach adopted after World War II, the Tokyo administration is taking the path of strengthening its defense capabilities and deepening regional cooperation mechanisms. The decision to increase the defense budget to 2% of GDP in 2024 is a concrete indicator of this transformation. This increase targets investments in critical areas such as long-range missile systems, cyber defense capacity, and space technologies.
Japan’s cooperation with the US, India, and Australia within the framework of the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) constitutes an important dimension of efforts to balance China’s regional influence. Additionally, the strengthening of security cooperation with South Korea despite historical disputes is considered an important development in the evolution of the regional security architecture.
India, on the other hand, is developing a unique position in the process of changing global power balances. Under Modi’s leadership, New Delhi is pursuing a multifaceted foreign policy, both deepening its strategic partnerships with the West and maintaining its traditional cooperation with Russia in defense and energy fields. This balance policy provides India with a significant room for maneuver in the process of change in the international system.
India’s goal of becoming a global power, being the world’s most populous country, is supported by strong economic growth potential. Progress particularly in sectors such as digital technologies, space research, and renewable energy is increasing the country’s technological capacity. The young population structure and growing middle class offer important advantages for maintaining economic dynamism.
However, there are also serious obstacles to India’s goals. Structural challenges such as poverty, infrastructure deficiencies, problems in the education system, and regional inequalities prevent the country from fully realizing its potential. Increasing strategic competition with China, especially border disputes in the Himalayas and the struggle for influence in the Indian Ocean, significantly occupy India’s security resources.
In the coming period, the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region will be largely shaped by the collective responses developed by regional countries against China’s expansionist policies. Japan’s defense modernization and India’s multidimensional foreign policy approach will play critical roles in the formation of these balances. In this process, the course of the US relations with its allies in the region and the way regional security architecture evolves may have consequences that will also affect the global distribution of power.
The Rise of the Southern Hemisphere
The expansion of the BRICS group in 2024 with the addition of new members such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates has been an important indicator of the Global South’s increasing influence in the international system and the transition to a multipolar world order. This expansion increases the group’s weight in the global economy while strengthening its quest for alternatives to the Western-centered financial system.
Brazil’s highlighting of global governance reform, sustainable development, and climate change during its G20 presidency reflects the transformation demands of developing countries toward the international system. The Lula administration’s emphasis on multilateral diplomacy and efforts to assume the spokesperson role for the Global South reinforce Brazil’s regional leadership role.
South Africa continues its effort to maintain the role of “natural leader” of the African continent. However, problems such as high unemployment, energy crisis, and political corruption limit both the country’s economic performance and regional influence. Nevertheless, the African Union’s acceptance as a full member of the G20 has been a historic step strengthening the continent’s representation in global economic governance. This development lays the groundwork for more effective advocacy of African countries’ development priorities and interests on international platforms.
Technological Competition and New Security Threats
Next-generation technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 5G/6G technologies have become the fundamental determinants of strategic superiority in the 21st century’s global power struggle. China’s progress particularly in critical technologies such as artificial intelligence applications, semiconductor production, and telecommunications infrastructure is concerning the US and its allies. These concerns lead to the development of policies for restructuring technological supply chains and reducing dependence on China in strategic sectors.
Cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and hybrid warfare techniques are fundamentally changing the nature of threats to national security. The increase in cyber attacks particularly targeting critical infrastructure systems and the proliferation of AI-supported disinformation activities make it necessary for states to review their defense strategies. Competition in space technologies is also gaining a new dimension, with issues such as the security of satellite systems and the use of space for military purposes gaining importance.
Effective combat against these new generation security threats requires international cooperation and the development of common standards. However, the polarization environment created by the US-China competition and restrictions on technology transfer limit the potential for global cooperation. This situation makes it difficult to establish effective international governance mechanisms in areas such as cyber security, artificial intelligence ethics, and the peaceful use of space.
Economic Transformation and Globalization
The nature of globalization is undergoing a fundamental transformation within the framework of the 21st century’s geopolitical and economic dynamics. The supply chain vulnerabilities revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war have led countries to place more importance on economic security and strategic autonomy. In this process, diversification of supply chains and increasing domestic production capacity in critical sectors have become priorities of national economic policies.
Economic bloc tendencies are becoming more apparent, especially in technology and energy sectors. The US’s “friend-shoring” policy and China’s “dual circulation” strategy are indicators that the global economy is becoming increasingly politicized. US-China trade wars, export restrictions on semiconductor technologies, and mutual investment barriers are leading to a deepening of economic divergence. This situation forces global companies to restructure their operations and investment strategies considering geopolitical risks.
BRICS countries’ efforts to challenge the dollar’s dominance in the international financial system constitute an important dimension of the quest for transition to a multipolar economic order. Trade with local currencies, alternative payment systems, and initiatives to create a common reserve currency stand out as concrete steps in this direction. China’s digital Yuan project and initiatives such as the BRICS New Development Bank form the foundations of an alternative financial infrastructure.
However, the dollar’s continued position as a global reserve currency and the depth of US financial markets make it difficult for the current system to undergo a radical change in the short term. The fact that a large part of international trade is still conducted through the dollar and the dollar maintains its weight in the reserves of global central banks indicates that the transformation of the financial system will be a long-term and gradual process. In this transition process, a more complex structure where different currencies and financial systems coexist is likely to emerge.
Climate Crisis and Global Security
International cooperation efforts, vital for combating climate change, are being disrupted due to global geopolitical competition. Particularly China and India’s policies to increase coal use and priorities to maintain industrial growth are seriously hampering the fight against global warming.
China, although being the world leader in renewable energy investments, reached a record level in coal consumption in 2023 and continued to approve new coal plant projects. Similarly, India also continues its policy of expanding coal production to meet increasing energy demand. The total carbon emissions of these two countries constitute approximately one-third of global emissions.
An important deficiency that stands out in the 2024 Munich Security Conference (MSC) report is the lack of adequate mention of the risks created by China and India’s emission increases when addressing the security dimensions of climate change. The report focuses on how climate change affects conflict dynamics but does not sufficiently explore the global effects of the climate policies of these two countries with the world’s largest populations.
The race for leadership in clean energy technologies has become a competitive area with economic and geopolitical dimensions. Large-scale green industrial policies such as the US’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the EU’s Green Deal program are indicators of the intensification of this competition. Developing countries, on the other hand, are experiencing disagreements with developed countries on the costs of green transformation and technology transfer.
This competitive environment and the contradictory policies of major economies are making it increasingly difficult to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Particularly regarding supporting the green transformation process of developing countries, the international community’s development of a common approach is of critical importance.
The Future of Global Governance
Current international institutions, as products of the order established after World War II, are inadequate in reflecting today’s multipolar world reality. The permanent membership structure and veto mechanism of the UN Security Council are far from representing the changing power balances and prevent effective solutions to global crises.
At this point, Turkey’s “The World is Bigger than Five” discourse stands out as one of the diplomatic initiatives that most clearly reveals the international system’s need for reform. This approach, which President Erdogan has resolutely defended since 2013, has succeeded in keeping the injustice of the current structure of the UN Security Council and the need for change on the global agenda. Turkey’s visionary policy has played a pioneering role in expressing especially the Global South countries’ demands for representation in the international system. The emphasis on “A more just world is possible” has not only presented a critical approach but also laid the foundations of an alternative global order vision.
G20’s acceptance of the African Union as a full member and the expansion of BRICS are signs that global governance is evolving toward a more inclusive structure. These developments reflect the increase in the Global South’s role in the international system and the emergence of new governance models in the multipolar order.
Regional cooperation platforms and sectoral initiatives stand out as alternative mechanisms aimed at filling the gaps in global governance. Regional structures such as ASEAN, the African Union, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization strengthen coordination among member countries, while special cooperation platforms are being developed in specific areas such as cyber security, climate change, and trade.
However, this pluralistic structure also brings important coordination challenges. Overlapping jurisdictions between different platforms, diversification of standards, and the complexity of decision-making processes make effective policy implementation difficult. The reflection of strategic competition among great powers on regional platforms can limit the autonomous decision-making capacities of these formations and reduce their cooperation potential.
In this context, the reform of international institutions and the development of new governance mechanisms are of critical importance for global stability. However, the constraints created by current power balances and countries’ differentiating interests stand out as the main obstacles to a comprehensive reform process.
Conclusion and Future Perspective
The international system’s transition to multipolarity emerges as an inevitable reality of the 21st century. The peaceful and stable management of this transition process is of vital importance for the future of the global order. Increasing geopolitical competition and ideological polarization tendencies are making international cooperation increasingly difficult in combating common problems such as climate change, cyber security, and global health.
The course of US-China strategic competition is one of the most important factors that will determine the basic parameters of the new order. Technological competition, economic divergence, and military tension between the two superpowers are testing the stability of the global system. The outcomes of the Russia-Ukraine war will shape the future of European security architecture and the harmony of the Western alliance. Developments in areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology have the potential to fundamentally transform the balance of power.
Building a sustainable and stable multipolar order requires the establishment of a minimum ground for consensus among great powers. In this context, the development of new diplomatic mechanisms that can manage strategic competition and the strengthening of crisis management channels gain importance. Making the global governance system more inclusive to reflect the increasing weight of the Global South is critical for the legitimacy of the system.
Otherwise, uncontrolled competition and deepening polarization may lead to the fragmentation of the international system and a chaos environment threatening global stability. Combating common existential problems of humanity such as the climate crisis, pandemics, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and cyber threats necessitates all actors to take responsibility and cooperate.
The role of regional powers and international institutions also gains importance in this process. Local actors taking initiative for maintaining regional stability and preventing conflicts can contribute to managing tensions at the global level. Increasing the effectiveness of international organizations through reform and developing new cooperation platforms will strengthen the institutional infrastructure of the multipolar order.
In conclusion, the successful management of the transition to multipolarity will be decisive for the sustainability of global peace and prosperity. In this process, all actors need to establish a healthy balance between competition and cooperation and act on the basis of common interests.
