The struggle against the climate change has historically been marked by a huge asymmetry between a deep worry among the public opinion and a substantial incapacity of the international community to enact anything aside non-binding initiative. The COP 28 achieved a worldwide recognition of the necessity of a global phase out of the fossil fuels, but the way to achiev this ambitious goal it’s still obscure. The COP 29 will probably be marked by an attempt to recompose the asymmetry between ambition and action.
The Global South and the Global North, shift of production, shift of emissions
Since the 19th Century, the human development has been linked to the burning of fossil fuels, a process capable to produce a huge amount of energy, in exchange for the emission of a greenhouse gas, the CO2. The progressive rise of the mass society and its huge demand of energy supplies determined the increase of the quantity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which resulted in an increase of the global temperature, a phenomenon known as “Global warming”. This process increasingly attracted more and more public attention, and it eventually became one of the most prominent issues in the public debate. In 1995 the United Nations organized the first Conference about climate change, the Conference of the Parties, popularly known as COP. At the same time, this period saw the economic and military rise of the so-called “Global South”. Developing countries, mostly located in Asia and Africa, likened their economic growth to the intensive use of fossil fuels and polluting technologies. Due to this state of affairs, the Developed countries (The so called “Global North”) traditionally considered the most polluted nations remained the top emission countries for consumption, while the Global South emerged as the main emitter for production. This state of affairs made very problematic to achieve an effective global energetic transition. The developed countries, despite good progresses in the investments in clean energy, remain important emitters, in particularly on the consumption front and often accuse the Global South of not doing enough to fight climate change. At the same time, the developing countries remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels and high emission production. They are highly skeptical about a phase out from fossil fuels and accused the Global North to have impacted their territories with its emission.
The road to the COP 29
The COP 28 represented an attempt to recompose this fracture. The conference was hosted in an oil exporter country, which is often regarded as part of the Global South. The involvement of fossil fuel dependent countries was aimed at promoting an effective joint path toward an effective energetic transition. The first major issue inherited by the COP 28 from its predecessors was the damage on the territories of the “southern” countries due to the pollution from the “north”. The conference made operational the loss & damage mechanism aimed to use the financial resources of developed countries to support energetic transition in developing countries. This result represented a good first step in order to reconcile the two sides of the world and got an effective collaboration toward a progressive decarbonization. The second great success achieved by the COP 28 was the global stocktake approved at the end of the conference. The document officially stated the necessity to gradually abandon the use of fossil fuels, a goal recognized for the first time even by fossil fuel dependent countries. The global commitment toward a progressive decarbonization by oil and gas exporter countries represented a significant milestone in the history of the struggle against the climate change. For the first time, the whole international community shared the same purpose for the future.
However, the two most important achievements of the COP 28 hidden its biggest failures. First of all, the COP 28 was marked by a clear asymmetry between goals and resources. The loss & damage mechanism required nearly 400 billion, but only 400 million were effectively allocated. The deep asymmetry between ambitious goals and inadequate resources has historically affected the struggle against the climate change and the COP 28 didn’t represent an exception. Secondly, the commitment to a global abandonment of the fossil fuels remained part of a non-binding resolution without both an agenda of implementation and an effective solution. The Conference of the Parties recomposed the fracture between the two worlds but didn’t’ provide a roadmap to achieve its ambitious goals.
The COP between two worlds
The 29th edition of the Conference of the Parties exactly as its predecessor will be hosted by a fossil fuel dependent country regarded as part of the Global South. Azerbaijan represents one of the most beneficiary of fossil fuels export. Baku economy benefited from oil production during the 1800s and since 1994 from the export of natural gas. While the precedent edition of the COP has achieved a recomposition between the “two worlds” and a common commitment toward a decarbonization and a progressive phase out from the fossil fuels, the burden placed on the COP 29 will be an even more difficult recomposition. The incoming Conference of the Parties will probably be aimed to align the ambitious goals established during the COP 28 with the resource needed to achieve them. This task represents probably the most difficult issue that will be discussed during the conference and it’s highly unlikely that the COP 29 will end with the allocation of all the necessary funds, but there is an opportunity to effectively implement the damage & loss mechanism, which was left deeply underfunded by the COP 28.
On the second hand, there is a much more concrete opportunity at the COP 29, showing to fossil fuel dependent countries the existence of another way. The oil and gas export represents the lion share both of the GDP and the national budget of many countries belonging to the Global South. Now, one of them, whose economy is among the top 10 economies most dependent on fossil fuel export, will host the most important conference about climate change. Azerbaijan is exploring the possibilities to exploit its massive potential of green energy production. The Caspian Sea could in fact be the site for the location of hundreds of offshore wind turbines capable to produce huge amounts of clean energy. The COP 29 will represent an opportunity for Baku to attract investors to finance this project and turning itself into a green energy hub. The 29th edition of the Conference of Parties has the potential to show to fossil fuel dependent countries the existence of a viable and profitable alternative to the burning and the extraction of oil and gas. The most important legacy of the COP 29 could be a blueprint for fossil fuel dependent nations aimed to diversify their economy.
During the last two decades the relative weight of the Global South has been increasing throughout the years. Now this “bloc” accounted for a significant part both of the global GDP and global emission. A correct global governance, aimed to solve the world’s problem, like the global warming, requires a correct involvement of these countries. The COP 29 has the potential to become the starting point for the formation of a more inclusive global governance aimed to lead both the Global North and the Global South toward a more sustainable future.
